Scenario planning doesn’t have to be negative or take up a lot of resources. When done right it can have enormous benefits for the organization. It can be used as a tool for making decisions during times of ambiguity. Not just during a crisis, but change. What if your industry or organization suddenly found itself in such a growth spurt your greatest fear was imploding?
Look at scenario planning as a pivot versus a negative. Pivot points happen in every organization. How prepared you are can be the difference of taking advantage of a situation or the situation consuming your every decision.
First used by Shell in the 70’s, it’s now widely used in organizations all over the world and further popularized by the United States Coast Guard. The reality is you can use this for any size organization. The approach should be used as part of a larger strategy so you can future proof the organization and anything that could be thrown its way.
I like simplifying the process. When you look at a simple probability matrix you can be effective and clear to work through any scenario. This simple graph I got from www.SmartInsights.com